I’m late to the party, but I’ve been watching the Traitors UK. What a brilliant showcase of psychology!
If you don’t know the show, a group of around 20 people have to uncover the “Traitors” amongst them. The Traitors “murder” someone every night, and if they stay undiscovered, take the prize pool from any “Faithfuls” who remain. Each day, the group gathers at a round table to banish whomever they believe to be a Traitor. Problem is, they often mistakenly banish a fellow Faithful instead.
Interestingly, as soon as someone thinks they know who a Traitor is, they can rarely be dissuaded. Instead they double down, seeking facts to validate their view and trying to convince their comrades.
This is a master class in how confirmation bias rules (and ruins) decision making. Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek information that confirms rather than disconfirms our view. Once an idea is lodged, it’s very difficult to dispel.
For instance, in a significant meta analysis, across 91 studies and 8,474 participants, researchers concluded:
“The desire for feeling validated (i.e., maintaining self-consistency and reducing cognitive dissonance) often outweighs the goal of being accurate or open to disconfirming information.”
And, that we’re particularly prone to confirmation bias when:
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We’re confident in our view;
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The issue is important to us;
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We’re feeling tired or stressed; and
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We feel that opposing information will threaten our values.
So, does confirmation bias lead us astray? Yes.
Can we overcome it? Yes.
Do we want to? Rarely.
Seems confirmation bias is the traitor within.
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